CMA Database has removed Lebanon from a list of top ten countries likely to default on their debt:
Venezuela has topped a list of the most risky sovereign borrowers, with Lithuania, Lebanon and Romania dropping out of the top 10 riskiest nations to be replaced by Pakistan, Egypt and Iraq. The report by CMA Datavision is based on the default risk of countries as determined by the price at which their credit default swaps trade in the market.
According to the report, Greece and Iceland have a higher chance of defaulting on their debt than Lebanon. But some analysts are unconvinced with the entire report:
“While I would agree with the ordering of the countries in the top 10, there are other countries that are far more likely to default than Greece that do not appear in the top 10,” said Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citi. “The implied probabilities of default over the next five-year period, however, are overstated – a 25 per cent chance of Greece defaulting, close to that of Iraq, is ludicrous. It is a useful report, but it reflects the fact that financial markets are driven by nervous investors who invariably over-react in one direction or another.”
So what could this mean for Lebanon? Well, at best it could influence the cost of borrowing, but most probably it will have no affect at all.